Monday, February 18, 2013

American Dream died with Dow 49,200 forecast - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

American Dream died with Dow 49,200 forecast - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch
Some of the Dow predictions in 2000:
  • 15,000 by 2005: Deutsche Bank economist Ed Yardeni, quoted in Barron’s.
  • 18,500 by 2006: Prudential’s chief technician, Ralph Acampora, quoted in Fortune.
  • 41,000 by 2008: Harry Dent, author of “The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History.” Wired magazine quoted 41,000 as a peak with the market not bottoming till 2022. Dent has since published “The Great Crash Ahead” and “The Great Depression Ahead.”
  • 21,200 by 2010: Sheldon Jacobs, publisher of the popular No-Load Fund Investor newsletter hedged his optimistic bet in small type: “But it won’t be smooth sailing. There will be three major bear markets before then.” But long-run, it was optimistic.
  • 30,000 by 2010: In an interview, Barron’s noted that back in 1989 Frank Jennings, manager of Oppenheimer Global Growth & Income Fund, had successfully predicted the Dow at 10,000 within 10 years. His new Dow 30,000 assumed an “exponential gain of 11% a year.” Later in 2000, Jenning’s optimism was reinforced with the publication of “Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market,” by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett.
    49,200 by 2013: Investor’s Business Daily made this forecast based on an assumed 15% annual growth rate, which was the actual average gain of the Dow from 1982 to 2000, so at the time, it made sense.

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